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650 Group Blog

It's Time to Talk About Programmable and Accelerated Switching

10/21/2021

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The market is ready for a new classification of Switching in the Data Center

Historically, the portion of the Ethernet switch market geared toward programmability was limited to high-frequency trading (HFT) and some niche Telco use cases. For HFT, Arista and Cisco used a combination of ultra-low latency ASICs and FPGAs. 

That market has historically had approximately $200M in annual revenue. The programable switching market, led by Intel's Barefoot Tofino ASIC leveraged by nearly a dozen vendors, also does about $200M a year in revenue.

Network devices have lagged in innovation compared to servers, with the Smart NIC and DPU accelerators running various workloads ranging from storage, virtualization to security. It's time for the network to create a similar innovating leap into accelerated networking. 

Aruba, a Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company has launched the CX 10000, which is the first product to enter the market for this class of device. It combines HPE Aruba's networking IP, such as Fabric Composer and switch expertise, and Pensando's DPU to address various new deployment models.

We expect that by 2025, the market for these accelerated class devices will exceed $10B. More than fifteen years ago, the market made a transition to purpose-built products for the data center and campus. Today's data center requirements are similarly pushing for new product classes and purpose-built products to address the need in a hybrid-cloud world compared to the legacy approaches used for the past decade-plus.


If we look at Aruba's CX 10000 in a little more detail, several use cases geared toward colocation, hybrid-cloud, and security take center stage. With each use case, we note that the enterprise could no longer scale with the number of applications, the pools of data, nor the new multi-cloud environments. Contemporary architectures are needed to support applications and to allow the human in IT to scale. At the same time, we are in the early stages of netOps and secOps merging.  Today, this leads to early themes, but the next decade of networking must support this broader trend, and we view products, like Aruba's CX 10000, as looking forward to the next ten years of networking design.

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Best Laid Plans and Confidence Over the Summer Still Leading to Supply Chain Shortages in 4Q21

10/19/2021

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Our supply chain checks across the technology and cloud sector continue to turn pessimistic during the early days of October. As a result, orders for semiconductors that were thought to be secured and guaranteed are being cut.  The implications are clear that most segments we track are in for several bumpy months, with all efforts to bring 2022 back to normal.
 
Component suppliers are cutting or negotiating back existing commitments – Factory shutdowns, lack of fab capacity, and logistics gridlock continue to hamper the ability of system vendors to get adequate supplies.  Vendors continue to burn through their stock, and no vendor can ship a 99% complete product.  Vendor resources, which should be on 2022 product launches and securing capacity for future product cycles, are instead spent figuring out what to ship and adjusting components in existing product lines.  In general, vendors are shipping fewer varieties of SKUs now than at any point in the past 20 years.
 
Prices are increasing for components and, in some cases, will never return to the previous price – While some price increases could be classified as temporary or transitionary like rush charges, air freight, and redesigns, many events are leading to more permanent price increases.  At the very least, vendors will dual source suppliers, manufacturing across many geographic regions leading to lower volume with each supplier. As a result, we view some semiconductor components as never returning to pre-COVID price levels. So the big question remains when products will return to historic price erosion?
 
2022 lacks new product designs – In 2021, there were very few new product introductions and downsizing in SKU offerings.  In some markets, we track there was minimal impact, but in other areas like 400/800G, the lack of clarity is causing many hyperscalers to reevaluate their speed transitions.
 
We expect a different tone in earnings season as vendors, component suppliers, and customers adjust to the new normal of not getting every type of product they want over the next several quarters. As a result, some projects will be delayed, others scaled back, and spare capacity at AWS/Azure/GCP will be put to the test as many enterprises embrace capacity to buffer shortfalls in premises-based hardware.
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Cribl's Fall Release Hints At Why It Just Closed a Monster Financing Round

10/12/2021

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When Cribl announced its monster $200M financing round, we wondered what is coming next for the observability infrastructure company.  The company has revealed some of what got investors excited in its fall release (Version 3.2.0) announcements.  We think the two most important elements of the fall release announcements include is Cloud Visibility & Management and its Quick Connect features, both of which enhance Cribl customers’ implementation of the flagship product, LogStream. 
In addition to this 3.2.0 release, we think another reason investors are so enthusiastic to back Cribl is the growing demand for observability systems.  We expect that, over time, the networking, security, and observability industries will see increasing overlap between each other.  This overlap will drive customers to demand solid third-party alternatives to the trend where prominent players from each of the three industries acquire smaller, best-of-breed category leaders.  While there is able competition in the overall Observability market, Cribl’s newfound war chest positions it to vie for leadership in the emerging observability infrastructure market.
The company’s main fall release enhancements include:
  • Quick Connect – connect sources to destinations with a simple, drag-and-drop interface without the need to create filters.  We see Quick Connect as a GUI that reduces the time to route data between source(s) and destination(s). Cribl’s “Pack” concept, which is a pre-configured package of functions sourced from Cribl and/or its community members, can also be easily applied with a few clicks.
  • Cloud Visibility and Management – Central management for multiple LogStream systems from the Cloud, providing a single pane of management, data processing, and billing.  We see this capability as akin to cloud-management of data networking devices like WLAN Access Points in that it allows you to keep the management plan separate from the data, and keep the data processing close to the egress point data separate from the management plane.
  • GitOps Workflows – the company allows you to pull and push updates from the production version of Logstream.  The GitOps Workflows function allows you to develop, test and deploy more efficiently using the Git concept.
  • OpenTelemetry Support.  Support for OpenTelemetry, which is an open-source and free collection of tools, APIs, and SDKs that is in beta and should get to general availability soon.  Logstream is ahead of the industry in its support.
  • Integrations – Logstream will soon support Crowdstrike, O365 Teams, DataDog, New Relic Ingest
The Cloud Visibility and Management function is essential because it contemplates two realities: (a) the need to centrally manage multiple LogStream systems simultaneously, and (b) the increasing need to ensure data flows through and is stored, in the places specified by the customer.  The first, central management, the function should be an obvious enhancement to LogStream, for many reasons, including that most software systems are moving to the Cloud. As customers deploy LogStream more widely, managing them gets easier with central management. 
The second important function of Cloud Visibility and Management is that it:
  • allows customers to comply with government mandates for data usage and storage,
  • enables customers to more ably address privacy and security concerns
  • empowers organizations either to move to the Cloud, maintain premises-based locations, or permutations of both, depending on various factors including cost and corporate “cloudification” objectives
Quick Connect simplifies setting up LogStream and is especially appropriate for improving the set-up experience when first using the system.  We see this as a wizard that makes it easier and faster to set up LogStream.  In early customer usage of this feature, it sees it most often used for fast onboarding for data routing.  We’d expect this to remain the case for customers who implement the 3.2.0 release.
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    CHRIS DePUY
    &
    Alan weckel

    Technology Analysts

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